The Playbook
How to Calculate Expected Value for a Moneyline Bet—and Why It Only Pays Off Over the Long Run
Expected Value (EV) quantifies the average profit or loss from a bet if repeated many times, calculated using a straightforward formula. While positive EV indicates long-term profitability, this mathematical edge only becomes reliable over a large sample of wagers, not single games.
Darius Tehrani·October 25, 2026
