The Chicago Cubs' rotation currently ranks 23rd in strikeout rate at 20.5% and 24th in average fastball velocity at 93.4 mph, according to Nytimes. Despite these significant statistical challenges impacting their immediate performance, Jed Hoyer confirmed that even if ace Justin Steele returns this year, he will not rejoin the rotation, according to Sports Illustrated. Jed Hoyer's decision to keep Justin Steele out of the rotation, even if he returns this year, signals a clear organizational priority that extends beyond the current season's win-loss record.
The Cubs' pitching staff faces struggles with low strikeout rates and fastball velocity, creating an immediate competitive void. However, their most accomplished pitcher, Justin Steele, will not rejoin the rotation even if healthy this season. The struggles with low strikeout rates and fastball velocity, coupled with Justin Steele's absence from the rotation even if healthy this season, highlight a tension between immediate competitive needs and long-term asset management, affecting how the Cubs address their pitching staff.
The Cubs are likely signaling a strategic shift towards protecting key assets and building depth, rather than pushing for immediate, risky rotation fixes for their pitching staff needs in the 2026 offseason, despite the current struggles. The Cubs' deliberate approach prioritizes future viability over present-day performance, a notable departure from typical competitive strategies.
The Immediate Pitching Landscape
- Edward Cabrera has been placed on the injured list with a hamstring strain, joining Cade Horton, Justin Steele, and Jameson Taillon, according to MLB Trade Rumors.
- Matthew Boyd is expected to return from meniscus surgery and will take Cabrera's spot in the rotation, according to MLB Trade Rumors.
This extensive injury list forces the team to rely on returning injured players for immediate rotation fill-ins. The ongoing need to integrate recovering pitchers like Boyd, given the extensive injury list, underscores a current lack of healthy, consistent depth. Such reliance on players returning from injury compounds the challenges faced by the Cubs' pitching staff.
Steele's Proven Value and Strategic Holdback
Justin Steele posted a 3.07 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 24 starts, covering 134.2 innings last season, according to Marquee Sports Network. His consistent performance garnered Cy Young votes in 2023, Marquee Sports Network reported, affirming his status as a top-tier pitcher.
The Chicago Cubs' explicit decision to bench Cy Young vote-getter Justin Steele, even if healthy, while their rotation ranks 23rd in strikeout rate, reveals a front office willing to sacrifice immediate playoff contention for an unprecedented long-term arm preservation strategy. The Cubs' decision to hold back a pitcher with Steele's recent elite performance and Cy Young recognition underscores a cautious, long-term approach to his health and effectiveness, aiming to prolong his career peak.
A Look Back at Steele's Strong Finish
Justin Steele maintained a 2.47 ERA in his final 19 starts last season after returning from an earlier injury, according to Marquee Sports Network. Steele's dominant performance in the latter half of the season highlights the significant impact he could provide to a struggling rotation, making his absence particularly notable.
By prioritizing a pitcher returning from meniscus surgery, Matthew Boyd, over their proven ace, Justin Steele, in a struggling rotation, the Cubs are signaling that pitcher arm health is now the paramount organizational concern, even above winning games this season. The Cubs' strategic choice to limit Steele's 2024 innings clearly emphasizes future value over immediate competitive gain, influencing the Cubs' pitching needs for the 2026 offseason.
Implications for the Cubs' Future Pitching
Justin Steele and the Cubs agreed to a 1-year, $6.55 million deal for 2025, according to Marquee Sports Network. Steele's contract extension, combined with his current rotation hold-back, suggests the Cubs are investing in his future as a key piece, even if it means sacrificing immediate returns. The financial commitment reflects long-term planning.
The long-term commitment to Steele implies the Cubs view his 2024 season as a strategic 'redshirt' year to preserve his future value, rather than maximizing his current impact. The Cubs' approach reflects a calculated decision to manage assets, potentially impacting the Cubs' pitching depth and competitive window through the 2026 offseason. The organization appears focused on building sustainable success rather than short-term pushes.
